Market Outlook

Overview: Asian real estate securities are up 17.53% YTD in USD, supported by recovering REITs/Developers, positive FX, and falling rates reigniting investor interest. Lower borrowing costs in Asia ex-Japan enable earnings upgrades and accretive acquisitions, while a weak USD, low growth, and falling rates continue to support positioning in the sector.

• Japan: JREITs up 11.9% since January but still trade at a 13% NAV discount. Ongoing asset sales and buybacks continue, while BOJ remains cautious amid US-Japan trade tensions. Fundamentals in Office and Hotels remain strong, and rising construction costs are limiting new supply.
• Australia: The RBA is expected to cut rates later this year, with inflation within target and labour markets softening and part-time jobs declining. We are maintaining overweights in Residential-Diversified, Retail, and Self-Storage. Macro data is expected to drive prices ahead of August earnings.
• Hong Kong: HK real estate stocks rose over 20% in H1 2025, supported by falling rates, recovering retail, residential and tourism activity, and underweight investor positioning. HK Land has led gains on asset sales, buybacks, and dividend enhancement, while large-cap developers remain at wide NAV discounts.
• Singapore: Large-cap SREITs are trading at 2025 highs, supported by falling rates reducing refinancing costs and enabling DPU-accretive deals. The recent NTT Global Data Center REIT IPO was 2.5x oversubscribed with an initial 7.5% yield. New residential cooling measures are unlikely to materially impact the sector.

Overall: We maintain a cautiously optimistic view on Asian REITs, supported by falling interest rates across Asia ex-Japan, which enable lower financing costs and open the door for accretive acquisitions. Singapore exemplifies this trend, with Capitaland Ascendas acquiring assets at attractive cap rates using low-cost debt and equity raised at a premium to NAV.

Regional Highlights:

• Japan: JREITs have outperformed equities in 2025 despite rising bond yields, driven by wide valuation discounts and buybacks. While refinancing at higher rates is a headwind, rental growth from expiring COVID-era leases and strong fundamentals in office, hotel, and urban retail sectors provide earnings support. JREITs are preferred over developers at this stage.
• Australia: Ex-Goodman, REITs have rallied with names like Charter Hall and Mirvac seeing strong gains. Valuations are now full in some names, prompting rotation to undervalued plays like National Storage REIT, which may benefit from consolidation trends and takeover potential. Exposure to Australia has been trimmed in favor of better value in Singapore.
• Hong Kong: Ultra-low HIBOR levels and recovering residential demand support REITs and Developers, particularly those with floating rate debt. Retail REITs benefit from stabilizing sales and moderating outbound travel. Link REIT and Fortune REIT may gain from Stock Connect inclusion. Caution remains for the oversupplied Central office market.
• Singapore: Large-cap SREITs (CICT, CLAR, Frasers Centrepoint) offer compelling relative value. Despite rate cuts, sector underperformance persists, but the high yield spread over rates is expected to attract rotation from banks. Accretive acquisition pipelines and potential growth in data centers and healthcare assets add upside.

 The Asia Pacific (APAC) real estate sector continues to exhibit moderate growth accompanied by notable progress in the housing segment, industrial and commercial market and sustainable real estate transformation. Strategic improvements in construction practices have also positioned this sector as a key driver of transformation, simultaneously shaping the evolution of real estate projects across the region.

The APAC real estate sector is progressively adopting eco-friendly innovations mainly through investments in renewable energy projects and sustainable urban development. This shift is evident in the evolving real estate regulations within the region for the last three months (December 2024 – February 2025). Countries such as Australia and Singapore have implemented policies and initiatives to foster the adoption of green energy, enhancing the growth and environmental responsibility of their real estate markets. Additionally, the region saw notable growth in commercial and industrial real estate, supported by fundings and redevelopment plans for business and commercial projects.

Aligned with these strategic advancements, APAC economies, including Australia, Singapore, China, Hong Kong, Japan and India, present promising opportunities for investors, driven by regulatory reforms designed to attract various asset classes and types. These nations are expected to play a significant role in directing regional investments and promoting growth in the coming months.

Overall: We still believe that the interest rate tailwind of slower global growth will support REITs in Asia especially Australia, Singapore and even Hong Kong (see fall in HIBOR). CPI in our region outside of Japan has been trending very much in the right direction.

• Japan (+7% in USD in April): The major developers will publish their annual results in May. After that it will be quiet until October and we see only limited upside potential. We have therefore added to REITs and bought Japan Real Estate Investment Corp.
• Australia (+9%): We continue to favor names like Stockland and Mirvac as we anticipate residential volumes to recover as the RBA cuts throughout the year. We are positive on self-storage due to continued population growth, and potential for more consolidation of unlisted, smaller players.
• Hong Kong (+2.3%): Money market rates continue to fall, the 1M HIBOR is below 2% now. For the short-term refinanced companies in Hong Kong a strong tailwind.
• Singapore (1.7%): We see continued drops in funding costs which will help earnings and fuel acquisition growth for some names that have strong costs of capital. With 1Q updates behind us, we see limited negative catalysts for the sector.